Recently, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded Indonesia's economic growth at 5,12% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. This exceeded economic growth projections from various independent institutions. Based on business sector, the largest contributions to this economic growth came from the manufacturing industry (18,67%), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13,83%), and wholesale and retail trade, car and motorcycle repair (13,02%). In terms of expenditure, household consumption saw the highest growth, reaching 2,64%. This release sparked several public reactions regarding the data used in the calculations. Transparency in government calculations is needed amidst this decline in public trust.
Although the processing industry is claimed to have experienced significant growth and become a major contributor to overall economic growth, conditions on the ground indicate otherwise. Economist The PRAKARSAEma Kurnia Aminnisa compared the condition of the BPS manufacturing industry with the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) from S&P Global. "As of July 2025, Indonesia's manufacturing PMI remains below 50, and this has been the case for four consecutive months since April. This indicates that Indonesia's manufacturing performance is currently experiencing a decline, in contrast to BPS data which shows significant growth," Ema explained.
Furthermore, Economic Researcher The PRAKARSABintang Aulia Lutfi revealed that household consumption growth calculations need to be re-evaluated. "Consumer credit growth only reached 3,12 percent, while the Consumer Confidence Index fell 5,3 points annually. Working capital credit also stagnated without significant growth, plus VAT and PPnBM realization still contracted 19,7% year-on-year," Bintang said. According to him, this trend raises questions about claims of significant economic growth, considering that financing indicators and consumer confidence do not show consistent strengthening.
On the other hand, Bintang explained that labor market trends show a reality that contradicts claims of economic growth. Data from the Ministry of Manpower shows that by June 2025, 42 workers had been laid off. "Many of them simply moved to low-productivity, informal, and vulnerable sectors, but are still categorized as employed by the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) indicators," he stressed. This situation indicates that the reported improvement in economic growth has not yet been reflected in the creation of quality and sustainable jobs.
Economic growth is not just a number, but the result of various variables that need to be explained openly. With easy access to information, the public can quickly assess the consistency of government data with independent indicators. We encourage public transparency regarding these economic growth figures, particularly by outlining the real contributions of consumption, investment, and exports and imports. This transparency is crucial for maintaining the legitimacy of the data and building public trust in ongoing economic policies.